In my judgment, the 16 Azar demonstration/resistance/outcry threatens to be the most potentially ominous of any to date. I hope the events as they transpire will prove me wrong, and that finally justice and freedom for Iranians will prevail. Nevertheless, it is always better to be prepared as best as possible, and at least to be aware of potential, if not probable dangers at hand. Drawing from sources in Iran, the Diaspora, published foreign intelligence commentaries, "trends" in online discussions, together with public statements and past actions by the illegitimate regime, the following seems quite likely:
This is the most problematic of all topics for resistance patriots, as it generates the most divergence of opinions and even technique. Years ago I told a friend of mine, a native military officer from India, that I'd decided to become a non-combatant and to refuse violence of all kinds ...just like Gandhi. His smile was kind enough, as he replied, "No you haven't. I know you; you are a warrior, and have only just exchanged the type of weapons with which you choose to fight for others. I am Indian, and we know that the methods Gandhi selected to fight the British were regarded by them to do violence to their empire. Even non-violence does violence to repression, my friend."
OK, perhaps we cannot settle all the implications of this right now, as the press of 16 Azar is propelling us forward. But certainly options need to be considered carefully, along with the possible consequences. All I can plead is please be careful, and stay as safe as you can. Some things to consider:
POST SCRIPT: Non-violent resistance can, in fact, win out in the end. It will, however, likely prove to be a quite lengthy process, with very many casualties. The current situation seems to be walking on a razor's edge, without clear indication of whether non-violence or resorting to armed resistance will be the enduring standard. Should many resort to arms of any kind, it is more than likely peaceful demonstrators will be viewed as one and the same with the violent. Think about it. Please know that I'm walking this with you ...without any condemnation of whatever your decisions may be. May it be freedom for Iran's people, and peace, and safety.
***more to come***
- All communication, landline & mobile, will be suspended. (Take pictures anyway, if your device has sufficient internal memory, and broadcast to the world later.)
- Public transportation will likely be limited, and some lines suspended, to restrict protester movement. (Travel the afternoon/night before, get as close to assembly point as possible, and stay the night with family or friends, or sleep the night under cover of wherever you can, and huddle together. This latter option needs food and water to be brought with you, as well as toilet paper. Next day, walk TOGETHER to designated location.)
- The Chief of Police has promised to turn Tehran into a "police city," so the brutality of security forces and basij may be the most unrestrained that it has been so far. (See "Safety" below.)
- Even greater number of arrests may be attempted than in the past; once in regime custody, then once again all holds may be off on the treatment of prisoners ...as bad if not worse than before. (See "Self-defense" below.)
- Put flat newspapers inside your clothing for transport to assembly point...once there, then wad-up each sheet and stuff back into clothes as "padding." It will be bulky, but will not hinder movement, and it will offer limited protection against body blows. Don't forget inside trouser legs, and groin too. Lots of paper!
- Wear over-the-head and shoulders "water lifesaving jackets" as minimum body armor. Combine with above.
- "Safety in numbers" could not be a truer axiom for protesters and resistance patriots of all kinds, so group together and pull each other to safety, and/or out of the clutches of guards or basij. If all else fails, as a "crowd," held together arms-in-arm, charge (yelling a battle cry) the guards and basij to retrieve those captured.
- During our Irish revolution against the British, we used the round metal trash can lids found everywhere for three things: 1) scores of people (generally children, at the same time doing a kind of defiant street dance) would "crash" them about on the ground, sounding warning (primitive cell phone) that police and troops were coming, 2) "crashing" them loudly together (and yelling) as a warning that we were about to charge the "royal" police (psychological warfare), and 3) as minimal shields against first blows, and then to swing and smash them into the faces of the regime forces, ...or, once they were a bit battered, then to "sail" them through the air into their faces.
This is the most problematic of all topics for resistance patriots, as it generates the most divergence of opinions and even technique. Years ago I told a friend of mine, a native military officer from India, that I'd decided to become a non-combatant and to refuse violence of all kinds ...just like Gandhi. His smile was kind enough, as he replied, "No you haven't. I know you; you are a warrior, and have only just exchanged the type of weapons with which you choose to fight for others. I am Indian, and we know that the methods Gandhi selected to fight the British were regarded by them to do violence to their empire. Even non-violence does violence to repression, my friend."
OK, perhaps we cannot settle all the implications of this right now, as the press of 16 Azar is propelling us forward. But certainly options need to be considered carefully, along with the possible consequences. All I can plead is please be careful, and stay as safe as you can. Some things to consider:
- I am convinced that any attempt to defend yourselves, even if non-violent in the sense of non-lethal, will be treated by this regime as an act of violence by an enemy of the revolution. It will escalate their retaliatory carnage against the people.
- If the people act to rescue each other from arrest (which I strongly recommend that you attempt to do, because of the treatment that awaits all captives), by breaking the windows and pulling them off buses, surrounding basij vans and pulling people out, pushing basij to the ground (as tenderly as possible) and disarming them, taking keys to handcuffs to free people, etc. It will all be regarded by this regime as violent rioting ...and will be met with greater violence in return.
- Some people, it seems, have already resolved to use non-lethal self-defense techniques and weapons. Home made pepper spray in squirt bottles, smoke "bombs," flash distractions like "tennis ball grenades," etc. are examples. It should, in all honesty, be pointed out that non-lethal weapons should actually read as "generally non-lethal," because in fluky situations they "can" be lethal, or at least physically damaging. Example: a tennis ball grenade accidentally striking someone's face, exploding and taking out an eye, etc. This is not to say don't use them, but rather to be aware of the risks. Tennis ball grenades can be great help as a distraction in mounting a full retreat.
- For those who are resolved to use whatever force and/or weapons necessary, I can only say that I understand the desperation ...even if I think the decision is not at all timely or perhaps practical right now. However, if you have chosen, then know that everything about you is a potential weapon, and I mean everything! Your thumb in someone's eye, your fountain pen is a dagger, your belt with a buckle a distracting whip, hubcaps with edges sharpened by filing are aerial, whirling knife blades (sail them through the air upside down, i.e. inside facing up), a tire iron is a bludgeon, pieces of pipe spears, [there is probably not enough time to get ready with this next one, but here it is for later if you have really abandoned non-violence]: a single lightweight curved, auto leaf spring from wrecking yards ...for leg-pulled bows (laying on your back like ancient Persian bowmen, look it up in your library for ideas), with arrows from rigid antennas or thin aluminum pipe with front smashed tight (practice with this one, because you can tear the skin right off your legs with the wire bow string if not careful), and rocks laying about, etc. If neighborhoods are attacked again by the basij in the middle of the night (or any time), weapons can be old TV's thrown off buildings or from windows on them below, or chairs or anything, a pole lamp as an underarm lance for frontal ground level attack, damaged (from first raids) satellite discs (file every 6" to make a razor sharp edge that is about 3" long, on around the whole thing, with occasional hacksaw points cut out of the edge as well) can be sailed off roofs into guards or basij [probably not enough time for that one either, this time], and bricks thrown off of buildings, etc. Please understand, such will likely bring out troop carriers and regular military into the streets against you, so you will need to follow through by capturing weapons wherever/from whomever you can, and don't forget to collect the ammunition as well. My heart is heavy for all of you, as I'm afraid it is far too early for such actions. But I'm getting indications that some of you are here already. Get lots of bandages.
______
POST SCRIPT: Non-violent resistance can, in fact, win out in the end. It will, however, likely prove to be a quite lengthy process, with very many casualties. The current situation seems to be walking on a razor's edge, without clear indication of whether non-violence or resorting to armed resistance will be the enduring standard. Should many resort to arms of any kind, it is more than likely peaceful demonstrators will be viewed as one and the same with the violent. Think about it. Please know that I'm walking this with you ...without any condemnation of whatever your decisions may be. May it be freedom for Iran's people, and peace, and safety.
***more to come***
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