Phase I -- Part H [Revolution Winds]

Blog author, M.J. McCoy, in support of Iranian Freedom Patriots

I held off writing this current entry, until results of recent events became more clear, and possible trends identified. In addition, I wanted to verify information as to which way the wind is blowing for the Resistance Patriots in Iran. Here it is, so let's continue together.

The wind blowing across Iran is called "revolution," and I certainly did not anticipate your arriving at that point so quickly --although I did think you would eventually. What I am hearing from you, as is obvious to many analysts (of which those living it live are the most qualified) is that thirty years of repression is enough; thirty years of religious dogmatism is enough; thirty years of mass executions is enough; thirty years of torturing is enough; thirty years of being lied to by those in authority is enough; thirty years living in fear is enough; thirty years of systematic rape is enough; thirty years of betrayals and broken promises is enough; thirty years of being owned by a government that is nothing but a gang of self-serving cronies is enough; thirty years of suppression of free speech, journalists and brilliant intellectuals is enough; thirty years of a court system that cannot be trusted to render justice is enough; thirty years of being beaten up, kicked, knifed, shot-down and brutalized by a fanatic cult of basij is enough! "Enough" IS enough, already, and we've had it ...so resign, or prepare to be destroyed. We WILL have our dream of a hundred years for democracy, or die fighting for it.

Am I hearing you correctly?

There is, my friends, a time to make peace, and there is a time to make love --and I'm sorry to say it, but now is the time to fight. Certainly, for the greens, it has been a rightful badge of honor to be credited worldwide as non-violent. Nevertheless, that can no longer be strictly said, can it? This time, at least some of you fought back in self-defense, physically attacking security forces, and doing a good job of it, I might add. Even yet, many are holding to Gandhi's path and what Dr. Gene Sharp teaches. I admire all of you, those who fought back and those who didn't ...and so did the rest of the world admire the great courage demonstrated by you all. You must choose your own way to "fight" in this struggle, but fight, we all must.

It seems to me, neither Gandhi's method, nor Dr. Sharp's type of velvet revolution, could anticipate the brand of a regime you now face. In Gandhi's case, while the British at times acted brutally, they were already overextended, and lacked the stomach ("it wouldn't be civilized") for continued wholesale slaughter, so he won. Dr. Sharp's scenarios seem valid to me only if the regime in question responds to worldwide pressures, and also has no stomach for endless carnage.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has already slaughtered literally thousands of its citizens, thinks nothing of torture, rape, murder, unspeakable cruelties, and fanaticism to continue mayhem, for however long it takes to destroy the opposition. No need to mention its view of world opinion. Consequently, what I'm saying here is that you've got an unprecedented situation to tackle, one with only some similarities to other models. Maybe you will do well to consider an approach utilizing both non-violent and combative at the same time, as well as other resistance techniques such as work stoppages, civil disobedience, and others, etc. There are many ways to fight in both models, but these are the hard decisions that are yours alone to make. You will need to press on with your own strategic planning, and the decisions are not easy ones.

This is an extremely dangerous phase, so we must move quickly, and yet with all the skill possible. There are many scenarios posing very real perils, not the least of which would be a sudden (sooner or later) collapse of the current regime. If this were to happen right now, the very possible likelihood would be total chaos for months, if not years, as various factions will be battling to fill the power vacuum. The resistance patriots need a plan for an interim government ASAP! (Possible ways to accomplish this will be discussed later.)

Here are some thoughts on how I see the regime plans (needing to be addressed in your planning also) to "deal" with the resistance patriots, non-violent and/or combative:

• Kill as many participants as necessary, with a lot more "disappearances," and mass public executions.
• Marginalize student leadership by intimidation, blackballing from university and various professions.
• Continued use of basij to terrorize the general population into inaction.
• Continued prosecutions in kangaroo courts, complete with more fake confessions.
• Allow only hard line mullahs into public positions, and religious instruction of the people.
• Use of Revolutionary Guards to enforce the SL's pronouncements, even if that means using heavy weapons (such as tanks) against so-called "rioters."
• Increased 'management' of communication media.

All of which is designed to finally wear down resistance until the movement ceases to exist, and things go back to the way they were before the election protests.

There has been some discussion of the regular army coming to the defense of the people. In that scenario, I cannot see any way that the IRG will stand down, which would then likely devolve into civil war. Regions would then likely begin to struggle for their own autonomy, adding to the confusion and collective hardships. Who knows the outcome of this?

However, again, things are not hopeless, as the Iranian people have proven brilliant in reinventing themselves a number of times in their history. You can do it again, just keep going, talking, and brainstorming together within your groups. The next entry will make possible suggestions for tactics which you can consider ...but begin listing your own.

In the mean time, please examine two other blogs for ideas, and to which I also subscribe:

1. Help and Hope for the Green, by Blkpaw, for non-violent preparedness.
2. Guardians-of-Cyrus, combative considerations and ideas.

They are both listed in my profile to this blog, if you just want to click on them. Both contain some serious information. Lastly, for now, please consider the following reflection ...

"We are warriors for we fight to be the best we can be, not compared to any other, but within ourselves, the best for our own destiny.

We are warriors, for we contend in defense of the weak, the defenseless, the children and aged.

We are warriors, for we struggle to attain true wisdom, to follow excellent qualities of conduct, to be praiseworthy in truth of heart, exalted deeds and the path of spirit.

We are warriors, heroes together, for we stand courageous in loyalty to each other, to truth and responsibility for our own actions.

We are warriors, for we battle for the freedom of all people to determine their own destiny, and become the best they can be --without manipulation from anyone.

This is why we carry with pride the name warrior. We are Warriors in Both Worlds. Warriors of Truth.

We are Warrior Bands together."

***more to come***